They distinguish between bookings and goal-scoring for the home team and the away team. ( 2015) study goals and bookings-both yellow cards and red cards-in two seasons (2009–2011) of English Premier League and Championship games. A sending-off occurring after the 70th minute leads to a better performance of the penalized guest team. Contrary to this, the authors do not find such an effect for an away team. ( 2011) analyzing matches from the highest German league over the period 1999–2009 find that a red card given to the home team worsens their final score and result of the match. They also find that the optimal time to commit a foul depends on the score in a match. A sanction for the stronger team usually leads to fewer goals scored, whereas a sending-off for a weaker team usually leads to an increased number of goals. They find that goal-scoring in a match with a red card depends on the strength of a team. They show that the goal-scoring intensity of the sanctioned team decreased, while the scoring intensity of an opposing team increased slightly. After a red card is given, the odds for scoring a next goal for both teams are updated to reflect the situation. Such odds are updated during the match, reflecting the probability of an event such as one of the teams scoring a next goal. ( 2009) analyze the 2006 World Cup and 2008 Euro tournaments to estimate goal-scoring intensities from live betting odds. Furthermore, a player’s sending-off weakened the sanctioned team. Results show that when the first red card was issued, the score was more likely to be in favor of the opposing, unsanctioned team than in favor of the sanctioned team. They argue that a red card is an indicator of a psychological performance crisis. ( 2006) study a sample of 743 games from the highest German league from 1963 to 2004. They do not find any supporting evidence for a “ten do it better” effect. The turning point of this effect occurs around half-time, with sending-offs in the second half of a match having no effect. ( 1994), they also find that the earlier a sending-off occurs in a match, the higher the odds of winning for the non-sanctioned team are. Following the modeling approach of Ridder et al. They also find that around the 70th minute of a match, it becomes optimal for the defending team to commit a red card type of foul to an opposing player with a clear way to the goal.Ĭaliendo and Radic ( 2006) study FIFA World Cup matches between 19. Furthermore, using the estimated results, they conclude that a red card occurring early in the match increases the odds of winning substantially, whereas the probability of victory for the sanctioned team decreases even more. They find that the goal-scoring intensity of the team playing with 11 players increases by 88%, while the goal-scoring intensity of the team with 10 players does not change. ( 1994) examine 340 matches from the two Dutch professional divisions from 1991 to 1992, focusing on the scoring intensity before and after a red card. The timing of a red card sanction appears to be important. This research uses various estimation methods, focusing mainly on winning or losing or on goal-scoring. Previous research on the effects of a red card shows mixed results. Moreover, weak players are more likely to incur a red card than more talented players. Consequently, the sending-off of a teammate motivates the remaining players to put in more effort.Īccording to Anderson and Sally ( 2013), the strength of a team crucially depends on the weakest player. This would be in line with social impact theory according to which an increase in group size decreases the perceived pressure by members to put in effort. However, it is also conceivable that the sending-off of a player leads to a psychological “ten do it better” effect resulting in an enhanced spirit and a better defense of the sanctioned team. At the same time, the resulting power-play potentially presents a goal-scoring advantage for the opponents. The team receiving the red card faces a significant disadvantage, since the number of players of such a team is reduced from eleven to ten. Receiving a second yellow card also immediately results in a red card. A player may receive a yellow card as a caution. A player receives a red card after committing either a serious foul or after misconduct. A red card in association football results in the sending-off of a player.
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